May Home Sales Report

I give up, Josh Flory. You will always beat me to the monthly Home Sales Report. You, sir, are the most timely Home Sales Reporter. But that doesn't mean I won't keep adding my own two cents to those monthly numbers. Oh, no. Some of you might say numbers are numbers, but there ain't' no Home Sales Report breakdown like the AAKT Home Sales Report breakdown, because... well, there's just not.

So, here it is, the breakdown of the May Home Sales Report, All Around K-Town style:

As always, you know I like the good news first:

Average sales price of 3 BR homes is up.
May '07- $171,900
May '08- $184,700

Median sales price of 3 BR homes is (slightly) up.

May '07 - $152,000

May '08 - $152,400

Now for the not so great, but, hey, come on, you totally knew this was coming news:

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
May '07 - $96,500
May '08 - $88,900

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.

May '07 - $79,500

May '08 - $77,500

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is down.

May '07 - $335,800

May'08 - $290,800

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is down.
May '07 - $259,900
May '08 - $257,900

Average condo sales price is down.

May '07 - $169,700

May'08 - $165,800

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is down.
May '07 - $147,000
May '08 - $144,500

Total number of single family unit sales is down.

May '07 - 1666

May '08 - 1213

Total number of condo unit sales is down.

May '07 - 207

May'08 - 143

Days on market is up.

May '07 - 88

May '08 - 101

And here's a very clear picture of how home financing is evolving:

Number of FHA loans continues to rise skyrocket.
May '07- 59
May '08- 219

Heck, even the number of VA loans have doubled.
May '07- 18
May '08- 37

Meanwhile, the number of conventional loans has almost been cut in half.
May '07 - 1318
May '08 - 716

Finally, here's the What the Fudge news:

Residential active listings are up.
May '07 - 13,951
May '08 - 14,650

While residential listings taken are down.
May '07 - 3276
May '08 - 2834

So, here's my completely unscientific analysis:

1. The Knoxville condo market has finally taken a hit. A small hit, but I still stand corrected.

2. Residential sales are still soft*.

3. The upper price bracket homes continue to take a pummeling.

4. Buyers are continuing to go FHA either be choice, or because of lower credit scores or a need for at or near 100% financing

5. Judging from reduction of listings taken, it looks like homeowners who don't absolutely have to move have simply decided not to sell right now.

6. Knoxville buyers are still getting killer deals. Some are making out so well, they're even afraid to reveal their true identities.

If you're interested in looking at both reports yourself, here is '07 and here is '08. Enjoy, and if you notice anything interesting that I missed or messed up, let me know about it in the comments.

*No need to freak out. Lower average sales price and lower median sales price do not necessarily mean that your personal home has depreciated.

April Home Sales Report

I tried to get this out on time, I really did. And then Franken-deal rose from the dead and I had to go into my secret laboratory to try to keep it alive long enough to reach the closing table. Add mad scientist to my every growing job description. So, as usual, some other folks have already given you the rundown, but that's no reason not to look at the April Home Sales Report numbers the AAKT way.

Let's start with the good news:

Average condo sales price is up.

April '07 - $161,000

April '08 - $164.3

Median condo sales price is up
April '07- $139,900
April '08- $142,900

Now for the not so great, but not so totally unexpected news:

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
April '07 - $104,000
April '08 - $90,900

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.

April '07 - $82,000

April '08 - $79,200

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is down.
April '07 - $168,300
April '08 - $163,600

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is down.

April '07 - $152,000

April '08 - $149,000

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is down.

April '07 - $327,000

April '08 - $283,700

Median sales price for homes with 4 or more bedrooms is down.
April '07 - $274,400
April '08 - $240,000

Total number of single family unit sales is down.

April '07 - 1416

April '08 - 1144

Total number of condo unit sales is down.

April '07 - 157

April '08 - 147

Days on market is up.

April '07 - 85

April '08 - 100

And here's the "FHA may not be the new sub-prime, but it sure is curiously popular" news:

Number of FHA loans is way, way up.
April '07- 47
April '08- 162

Finally, here's my totally unscientific analysis:

1. The Knoxville condo market would probably survive a nuclear attack and still manage to show decent appreciation.

2. Residential sales are still soft*.

3. The upper price bracket homes are taking the hardest hit.

4. As conventional loan qualifications continue to tighten up, more and more buyers are going FHA.

5. Knoxville buyers are getting some totally sweet deals this spring.

*No need to freak out. Lower average sales price and lower median sales price do not necessarily mean that your personal home has depreciated.

1st Quarter Home Sales Report

Why am I always a day behind on the Home Sales Report? Oh yeah, it's all those pesky clients. (Note to clients - ignore previous sentence - you all are the best!) Josh Flory over at Property Scope has already put in his two cents, but I don't think it will hurt if I put in two more.

Let's start, as always, with the good news:

Average condo sales price is up.

Q1 '07 - $214,700

Q1 '08 - $226,000

Average sales price for homes with 4 or more bedrooms is up.

Q1 '07 - $282,100

Q1 '08 - $292,400

The neutral news:

Median condo sales price is the same
Q1 '07- $189,900
Q1 '08- $189,900

The not so great news:

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is down.
Q1 '07 - $169,500
Q1 '08 - $158,300

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is down.

Q1 '07 - $145,500

Q1 '08 - $144,000

Median sales price for homes with 4 or more bedrooms is down.
Q1 '07 - $238,900
Q1 '08 - $229,900

Total number of single family unit sales is down.

Q1 '07 - 3491

Q1 '08 - 2739

Days on market is up.

Q1 '07 - 93

Q1 '08 - 103

And finally, here's the "What the Fudge" news:

Average listing price for new listings is way down.

Feb '07 - $408,300

Feb '08 - $248,300

So, here, yet again, is my not so scientific analysis:

1. The condo market continues to fare better than single family residential homes.

2. Residential sales are still soft*.

3. Folks must have been selling a lot more of those houses most of us can't afford in Q1 '07.

*No need to freak out. Lower average sales price and lower median sales price do not necessarily mean that your personal home has depreciated.

From Hong Kong to Knoxville: A Reader's Analysis of the March Home Sales Report

Since both March and 1st Quarter stats are now up from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors, I thought I would do something a little bit different for Homes Sales Report this month. Intrepid reader Mac O. in Hong Kong (yes, that's right I have someone reading this in Hong Kong) sent me his own great breakdown of the March numbers and I think it's worth sharing. Plus that means I only have to crunch the Q1 numbers. Heh.

Some of Mac's interesting observations:

- The number of homes sold in March vs. last year dropped 24.8% in unit terms.

- The amount of homes sold in March dropped 26.2%. This is continued bad news for real estate brokers, as they work on commission.

Yeah, tell me about it, Mac.

- The average selling price dropped 1.9% year-on-year. As input costs would appear to have increased, this means smaller margins for developers.

- The inventory of homes listed above $250,000 now stands at 25.4 months versus 17.4 months of inventory a year ago.

Perhaps most interesting is this observation on FHA loans:

FHA loans skyrocketed from 56 in 2007 to 121 in 2008. That is an increase of over 100%, with 11.5% of all homes financed via FHA loans in the past month. The question becomes whether tightening lending standards are preventing people from buying a home? Or is it that FHA rates are now substantively more attractive than Conventional loans on a historical basis?

I think the answer to that question might just be that FHA really is the new subprime. It's just about the only way to get anything like 100% financing and it's become the only option for people whose credit scores are lower than 620. I think we're going to see a lot more FHA loans as the year goes on.

Thanks to Mac - I look forward to seeing your April breakdown as well.

Coming next - Q1 Home Sales Report Breakdown

March Homes Sales Report Breakdown is Coming...

Will you be ready?

February Homes Sales Report Revisited

Just what you wanted this week, more numbers, right? Josh Flory over at Property Scope has done his write-up on the Knoxville February Home Sales Report and he asks an interesting question:

"The median price for homes with two or fewer bedrooms, or four-plus bedrooms dropped, though. At the small end of the spectrum, the median price fell by a whopping 19.9 percent, to $62,500, while the median price at the high end fell by 3.7 percent, to $240,000.

Any thoughts on why this happened? One interesting quirk is the fact that there were 14 homes in the smallest category that sold for less than $20,000 in February, compared to only three in that category during February of 2007."

I have no idea about the homes under $20,000 quirk, but as for the other, I think the answer has to do with the tightened mortgage qualificaiton criteria. People who would have bought on the lower end last year simply could not qualify this year, while folks looking to buy on the high side wound up qualifying for less loan and had to buy less house.

Does that make sense to anybody else or have I not had enough coffee today?

February Home Sales Report

Better late than never - the February Home Sales Report numbers from KAARMLS are up. Let's start with the good news first:

Average condo sales price is up.

Feb '07 - $164,300

Feb '08 - $169,500

Average sales price for homes with 4 or more bedrooms is up.

Feb '07 - $293,700

Feb '08 - $303,000

Now for the not so good news -

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is down.

Feb '07 - $182,700

Feb '08 - $155,000

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is down.

Feb '07 - $141,600

Feb '08 - $145,000

Median sales price for homes with 4 or more bedrooms is down.
Feb '07 - $249,300
Feb '08 - $240,000

Total number of single family unit sales is down.

Feb '07 - 1,160

Feb '08 - 902

Days on market is up.

Feb '07 - 94

Feb '08 - 100

And finally, here's the "sellers are either in total denial or are eternal optimists" news:

Average listing price for new listings is up.

Feb '07 - $246,100

Feb '08 - $264,600

So, here's my not so scientific analysis:

1. The condo market is still chugging right along.

2. Residential sales are still soft*.

3. Sellers think it's still 2005.

*Please keep in mind that lower average sales price and lower median sales price do not necessarily mean that your personal home has depreciated.